By OLADEJI Olayiwola Nureni
The Yoruba believes that a calabash is far more than a simple container, it is a house, a sacred vessel of remembrance, memory, and continuity. It carries water from the stream, kola from the market, and palm wine from the farm. When it begins to crack, the wise do not throw it away in anger. Instead, they appeal to the elders. They come with resin, thread, and patience to fix it, ensuring it can be safely utilized once more. If not properly cared for, the calabash will shatter; if dug into by an unskillful hand, its sides will tear and the water will run out into the sand. This is the exact parable that the Yoruba political family must face today. The feud between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola is nothing like a typical rift between two ordinary politicians. It is a fundamental fissure in the calabash that they both worked tirelessly to construct. It is a family issue that has escalated into a regional crisis a threat to the very soul of the Southwest. Swords may be unsheathed today by both men, and they may be invited by elders tomorrow, but if no decisive action is taken now, history will record that when the walls started to crack, those tasked with fetching water were too occupied quarreling over who owned the well.
I. The patriarch's grief inside the mind of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's approach to his former protégé, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, can perhaps be described as a poignant mixture of stoic disillusionment and paternal sorrow. Tinubu's political family was never a mere alliance of convenience; it was a carefully crafted movement forged through the fires of ideational struggles and pro-democracy fights. In Aregbesola, Tinubu had a trusted ally to lean on an activist who could energize the grassroots and a kindred spirit on the exact same wavelength to whom he could delegate the movement’s banner. He saw a key strategist who could translate the Lagos governance template into other states; a man who could organize, mobilize, and philosophize. He had discovered an heir in spirit, if not in office. However, assuming the office of the President exposes a leader to the stark volatility of human loyalty when tested by local power struggles, such as the succession battle in Osun State. Internally, it inflicts deep damage on Tinubu to watch one of the foundational pillars of his political power crumble. Behind the cool politeness and gravitas of the Commander-in-Chief lies the personal sadness of a man whose political family has unnecessarily sliced itself in two a void that electoral victory alone cannot fill. A president can command the military, forge treaties, and engineer the economy, but he cannot legislate the affection of an estranged son, nor can he force genuine loyalty. The presidential palace is vast, but the echo of a broken political bond rings far louder. The tears of Tinubu are not those of a weak man; they are the quiet heartaches of a builder watching termites invade the main beam of his house. He remembers the perilous years of opposition when it wasn't safe to stand with him, and there, right beside him, was Aregbesola. History is a wound that an inauguration crowd can never heal when written as proxy wars, press statements, and cold silences. The President may smile at official ceremonies, but in the quiet solitude of his study, the old patriarch within him grieves.
II. The disciple's agony inside the mind of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola
Conversely, the mind of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola reflects the deep anguish of a committed follower facing extreme animosity from his leader. For decades, Aregbesola stood as an indispensable pillar of Tinubu’s political brand, serving key roles from his tenure as a vital commissioner in Lagos State to his governorship in Osun State. He now carries a profound sense of grief over being alienated from his fellow ideologues over local succession games. While conviction and principle guide Aregbesola, his conscience bears a heavy burden because he feels disconnected from the mentor he once publicly revered second only to God. That declaration was no mere compliment; in Yoruba political culture, a mentor is not a senior colleague, but a father, guide, and protective shield (Baba). Feuding with such a figure cuts into one's lineage and creates an empty void in self-identity. The pain Aregbesola feels is not the bitterness of losing a political argument, but the heartbreak of a long-serving loyalist who felt disrespected and unheard discarded the moment local dynamics shifted. Whether his grievances are fully warranted is for elders and historians to judge, but his feeling of betrayal is his felt truth. This rift has brought immense unhappiness to both sides, neither of whom genuinely enjoys watching a bond forged in anti-military struggles deteriorate. Aregbesola does not wake up plotting the downfall of his erstwhile mentor, nor does Tinubu sit in the Villa scheming to humiliate his former commissioner. They are caught in a tragedy larger than themselves, bound by the toxic advice of aides, their own public declarations, and hurt pride. The disciple yearns for respect; the patriarch demands fidelity. A whole region hangs in the balance between those two demands.
III. Those who profit from fire are the fuelers and the scavengers
Political opportunists and scavengers are actively instrumentalizing this tragic aftermath for personal gain. Those who stir up strife acting as undertakers for their own selfish interests flourish in the dark shadows of division. They sustain their political livelihoods on broken alliances and must be firmly neutralized. These are the actors who label any effort toward peace as weakness. They whisper conspiracy theories to the patriarch while telling the disciple, The father has abandoned you. They deliberately turn a family quarrel into an endless war. In the idiom of the Yoruba language, they pretend to bring water while secretly fanning the flames. They do not want reconciliation because peace would render them redundant, closing the doors to their appointments, government contracts, and political influence. They feed on confusion and draw their salaries from division. Many of these fuelers would be left without political oxygen if Tinubu and Aregbesola were to embrace tomorrow. That is why they work around the clock to keep the wound raw and bleeding. These scavengers are not friends of Tinubu, nor are they friends of Aregbesola, and they are certainly no friends of the Southwest. They are political undertakers draped in agbada, carrying shovels in their briefcases smiling by day and digging graves by night. The elders bear the strict responsibility of identifying these actors and purging them from the reconciliation table. A peace process involving people who profit from war is not peacebuilding; it is mere political theater.
IV. When brothers fight, the village burns and lessons from history
History shows that when key political actors divide, the consequences for the people are catastrophic. During Nigeria's First Republic, intense economic stagnation and social unrest were triggered by the famous feud in the Western Region between Chief Obafemi Awolowo and Chief Samuel Ladoke Akintola. That conflict was more than a political disagreement; it was a destructive battle over succession and regional identity that elders failed to resolve early. The resulting Wild Wild West era of violence, arson, and political assassinations directly paved the way for the 1966 military coup a domino effect whose economic and structural costs the Southwest has never fully recovered from. Across Africa and the world, personal rifts between allies have repeatedly torn nations apart:
Burkina Faso and the rift between Thomas Sankara by Blaise Compaoré destroyed a political friendship, ended a national dream, halted a revolutionary movement, and plunged the country into decades of instability.
Kenya and the bitter fallout between Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto split the ruling coalition, poisoned public discourse, and weaponized state institutions.
Civil Rights Movement and the ideological split between Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and Stokely Carmichael (Kwame Ture) divided the movement into moderate and radical factions, weakening both at a critical juncture in civil rights history.
South Africa and the political clash between Nelson Mandela and his former protégé Julius Malema polarized the electorate and created institutional paralysis.
European history and the personal the rift between Napoleon Bonaparte by his trusted Marshal, Joachim Murat, crippled the defense of the French Empire and accelerated its ultimate collapse.
The names, countries, and centuries change, but the historical law remains constant: a house divided against itself cannot stand. When allies turn their swords on one another, no weapons remain to defend against external adversaries. Tinubu and Aregbesola are not the first leaders to face such a rift, but unlike Awolowo and Akintola, they still have time to choose peace before the fire reaches the roof.
V. The High Cost to the Southwest and the Nation
The ongoing friction between these two leaders inflicts a heavy price on the Southwest and the entire Nigerian federation. When dominant leaders clash, governance suffers, development programs stall, and public resources are redirected toward political survival. Healthcare, education, infrastructure, and youth development are sidelined to fund security apparatuses, patronage networks, and media propaganda. Appointments are converted into weapons and development projects into political rewards, leaving ordinary citizens to bear the cost. Public disillusionment spreads as markets, student unions, cultural bodies, and traditional institutions are forced to pick sides. Factional agendas are brought before religious leaders for blessings, turning the home which should be a place of rest (ilé làbọ̀ sinmi oko) into an active battleground. Opportunists exploit these fractures by playing on sub-regional and town loyalties, weaponizing the concept of Omoluabi and turning shared history into a cage. Consequently, the Southwest risks losing its unified voice in national conversations. The Southwest is not a minor province; it is Nigeria's economic engine, home to Lagos, the country's intellectual hub, and the cultural heart of the Yoruba nation. When its political foundation shakes, the seismic waves disturb the entire nation, discouraging investors, stalling regional integration, and weakening national coalitions.
VI. Feeding the youth from a poisoned well
Perhaps the most devastating impact of this rift is the moral disorientation it inflicts on the younger generation looking to these political giants for leadership. Watching progressive political icons tear each other apart breeds deep cynicism, apathy, and moral confusion among the youth. If leaders who preached Omoluabi, fought for democracy, and built durable governance institutions cannot practice forgiveness, young people begin to view politics as entirely transactional and unprincipled. When loyalty is treated as disposable, the youth stop believing in mentorship altogether. Rather than being trained in policy formulation, administrative governance, and vision-driven leadership, young political hopefuls are recruited as digital foot soldiers and internet mercenaries. Equipped with data packages instead of books, they are rewarded for trending hashtags, fabricating insults, and smearing reputations rather than delivering policy analysis. This toxic culture teaches the youth that politics is merely an arena for personal vendettas rather than nation-building. As a result, the region's brightest minds retreat into technology, entertainment, or emigration (japa), leaving public service to those willing to prostitute their talent for factional warfare.
VII. Beyond Personal Loyalty: The Architecture of Lasting Peace
To prevent future political crises, the Yoruba progressive movement must transition from an over-reliance on informal, personal loyalties toward strong institutional mechanisms. Political parties must establish permanent, independent internal dispute resolution bodies councils of elders with binding authority to mediate conflicts before they reach a crisis point. These councils must not be populated by political opportunists, but by elder statesmen of proven integrity who command real moral authority. Furthermore, political parties must institutionalize transparent, democratic succession processes to eliminate the ambiguity and executive overreach that trigger acrimonious disputes. When succession rules are clear and losers are guaranteed a dignified role within the party framework, the temptation to burn down the political house is minimized. Mentors and disciples must recognize that disagreement on policy is not treason; a disciple should be able to challenge a leader without being branded a traitor, and a mentor should be able to offer corrections without turning a protégé into a scapegoat. Lasting peace requires mutual respect, institutional justice, and a commitment to regional stability over individual empires.
VIII. Concrete Steps Toward Reconciliation
To halt this downward spiral,these immediate and structured steps toward reconciliation must be taken:
1. Establish a Confidential Peace Council: A discreet, non-public mediation council composed of unassailable elders must be convened immediately to draft a mutually respectful political roadmap that honors Aregbesola's standing without undermining President Tinubu's authority. This must occur far away from media cameras and public spectacle.
2. Order an Immediate Ceasefire: Both leaders must immediately restrain their media aides, political surrogates, and social media proxies. Anonymous briefings, toxic rhetoric, and public insults must cease immediately, as every attack from a proxy narrows the path to forgiveness.
3. Engage Spiritual and Cultural Interventions: Both leaders should draw upon spiritual reflection to soften their stance, recognizing that true political power lies in the capacity to forgive. Prayers from traditional rulers, Imams, Pastors, and Babalawos can establish the proper spiritual atmosphere, but peace must ultimately be achieved through deliberate human action..
IX. The elders must act fast as performing the sacred duty of Yoruba leadership
The only individuals who seem blind to the danger of this confrontation are the gladiators themselves and the opportunists profiting from their division. The time is ripe for respected leaders of thought across Yorubaland traditional rulers, elder statesmen, religious leaders, and socio-cultural organizations like Afenifere and the Yoruba Council of Elders to intervene decisively. They must invoke the ancient Yoruba virtue of Omoluabi to bring both men to order, reminding them of their sacred duty to protect the peace and political stability of their homeland. As the Yoruba proverb wisely states: Àgbà kì í wà lọ́jà kí orí ọmọ tuntun wọ́ (The head of a newborn child cannot be crooked in the market when elders are present). Elders cannot sit idly in their palaces, churches, and mosques while the house burns. They must not wait until the structure collapses before convening a meeting; they must act now while the fire is still manageable. The collective voices of the Obas, Iyalodes, Baloguns, Bishops, and Imams must speak as one to declare that this feud has lasted long enough. They must invoke the memory of departed leaders Obafemi Awolowo, Ladoke Akintola, Abraham Adesanya, Adekunle Ajasin, and Bola Ige and ask Tinubu and Aregbesola whether the ancestors would be proud to watch the calabash break.
X. Conclusion is that history will judge the peacemakers
Ultimately, the historic legacy of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola will not be measured by their external political battles, but by whether they possessed the wisdom and humility to overcome their personal egos and reconcile. The legacy of the progressive movement relies entirely on unity, shared vision, and mutual respect. Allowing this feud to persist only deepens public cynicism and hands political ammunition to external adversaries who wish to see the influence of the Southwest diminished. True progress demands reconciliation. It is time for the elders to step forward, for the fuelers to be cleared away, and for both leaders to sheath their swords and rebuild the political house they spent decades constructing together. The broken calabash can still be repaired, the cracked wall can still be plastered, and the door remains open for a true meeting of minds. The scavengers are lurking, the youth are watching, and history is recording every move. May peace prevail, may the fuelers be silenced, and may both leaders remember that their true legacy will not be the enemies they destroyed, but the bridges they chose to rebuild. Reconciliation is not an act of surrender; it is the ultimate demonstration of political strength and wisdom
OLADEJI Olayiwola Nureni writes from Oyo